“When will the button be pushed on Celtic Sea offshore wind?”. This question gave pause to the panellists when it was posed at a recent event in Falmouth. A very tentative “it already has” was ventured, citing Erebus’ CfD success last year. In truth, Simply Blue’s 100MW project needs more early movers to confidently push offshore wind in this new region – in alignment with the pull of the 4.5MW leased in LR5, and beyond. This “push-pull” dynamic between the vanguard “T+Ds” and LR5 projects is explored below. Ahead of Allocation Round 8 (AR8) in the new year which could establish a very credible phased pipeline of FLOW off South Wales, South-West England and Cornwall.
For the successful delivery of offshore wind in the Celtic Sea a “push-pull” dynamic is key. The full scale LR5 projects need the early movers, of <100MW, to push ahead with progress; whilst the market pull of the three 1.5GW LR5 projects is essential for the smaller pioneers. Though often called “test and demonstration (T+D)”, “de-risk and scale-up” may be more appropriate as these projects work ahead of full commercial viability in a new region. A bona-fide pipeline is now in sight, crucial for a drum-beat of capacity-building:
- Erebus. Simply Blue’s 100MW FLOW project won CfD in AR7.
- WhiteCross. Flotation Energy remain engaged with their site off North Devon, disappointed to miss out in AR7 with their bid for 100MW.
- Llyr1. A marine license and S36 in hand just before deadline suggests Cierco are now in position to take forward at least 100MWs of FLOW off South Wales.
- Morlion. Seatrium have now taken full ownership from Hexicon of the pre-connected 40MW site off Cornwall. The previous CfD was handed back and fresh impetus is welcome, especially given Seatrium’s approach as a major marine contractor rather than conventional developer.
AR8 results in early 2027 could be highly significant in linking up AR7’s Erebus with the commercial-scale projects – marking a decisive shift from development to delivery. Much depends on the pot size and applications elsewhere of course but even partial success in the Celtic Sea would make for a healthy push ahead of the three projects leased in Round 5:
- Gwynt Glas. 1.5GW leased to this consortia between ESB, EDF and now Sumitomo with environmental scoping underway.
- PDA2 1.5GW leased to OceanWinds.
- PDA3 1.5GW leased to Equinor and environmental scoping initiated.
These are 10 years leases and time will be taken to ensure challenges can be overcome. With lessons learned from these energy majors’ projects FLOW projects around the world – particularly on platform selection and operational hours. However, only with “stepping stone” projects in the waters of the host region can serious progress be made on; installation in the distinct Celtic Sea environment and building a sustainable industry close to operations (such as through the Clean Industry Bonus scheme).
There are common industry challenges which cannot wait; ensuring port capacity, sourcing turbines, securing assets i.e. cranes and vessels, embedding social value. It is very positive that The Crown Estate have now established the Celtic Sea Forum for developers to begin discussions. More positive signs on future leasing rounds from TCE, potentially also including fixed wind in the English Channel, would also be welcome. Market pull supports the push of collective action – and signals confidence for ambitious UK companies to step-up with locally-led solutions.
Positive results in AR8 in the new year would be a major boost for practical momentum in the Celtic Sea. Perhaps not as clear-cut as a button being pushed but definitely a notch levered from development to delivery.
Feel free to contact CSP for more insights. CSP is a service delivery company; regionally embedded and able to help organisations navigate complexity – to deliver measurable social, economic and environmental value.
